Just a quick heads-up. There is now a report on my talk in parliament in London on ‘The Military Dimension of Russia’s Policy toward Ukraine: Should the West Be Worried?‘ under the auspices of the Henry Jackson Society here and also a full transcript of my opening remarks. Although the US government and NATO commander seems still to be suggesting Russian military action is imminent, my view is that the danger of that is receding; I hope I will be proved right. The next day, I spoke at the European Council on Foreign Relations about the political impact on Russia of sanctions, and you can hear a podcast of my comments here. I still suspect that future historians may conclude that when Putin took Crimea he lost not only Ukraine but, ultimately, the Kremlin.
On Russia, Ukraine, sanctions and war
Posted by Mark Galeotti on April 4, 2014
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/04/04/on-russia-ukraine-sanctions-and-war/
What Would A Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Look Like?
Not a new Cold War: Great Game II
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Mark Galeotti
This blog’s author, Dr Mark Galeotti has been researching Russian history and security issues since the late 1980s.
Educated at Cambridge University and the LSE, he is the director of the consultancy firm Mayak Intelligence. He is also an Honorary Professor at UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies, Ernest Bevin Associate Fellow in Euro-Atlantic Geopolitics with the Council on Geostrategy and a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI, as well as a senior non-resident fellow at the Institute of International Relations Prague and an Associate Fellow of the Middle East Institute’s Frontier Europe programme. Previously he has been a Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute, Head of the Centre for European Security at the Institute of International Relations Prague, Professor of Global Affairs at New York University, head of the History department at Keele University in the UK, an adviser at the British Foreign Office and a visiting professor at MGIMO (Moscow), Charles University (Prague) and Rutgers (Newark), as well as a visiting fellow with the ECFR.
His books include The Weaponisation of Everything (Yale University Press, 2022), A Short History of Russia (HarperCollins, 2020/Ebury, 2021), We Need To Talk About Putin (Ebury, 2019) and The Vory: Russia’s super mafia (Yale University Press, 2018), and several Osprey books. He is a regular contributor to Jane’s Intelligence Review and The Spectator Coffee House blog, and is a columnist for Raam op Rusland, Intellinews Business New Europe and the Moscow Times.
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In Moscow's Shadows 
SFPalladin
/ April 4, 2014Dr. Galeotti:
I enjoyed reading your remarks. If Russia does invade Eastern Ukraine, how likely is it that their would be protracted partisan resistance in the countryside? I’m mindful of the fact that the Ukrainian nationalists were able to resist the Soviets well into the 1950’s.
Thanks.
Best regards.
Greg Smith San Francisco
Mark Galeotti
/ April 6, 2014It’s certainly possible, as Dick Krickus has suggested here, but at the same time this is not Chechnya or Afghanistan. I think we’d see passive resistance and some terrorist-style partisan operations, but nothing on a massive scale. Fortunately, I think the likelihood of any such invasion is receding.
padraeg
/ April 6, 2014Of course the probability of Putin advancing diminishes every day, but only as Nato coalesces, & East Europe prepares for war. Hitler too may have doomed his leadership, viewed erroneously as in any way democratic. Similarly, Putin has done the same… UNLESS he attacks. Then, he is following the strategy of Napoleon – when necessary to prop up one popularity, and hold on power, attack. If you lose, attack again, quickly! The only plausible defense is to prepare a strong offense. I’d never want to use it!
hacampbell
/ April 7, 2014I thought your point about the Cold War vs Great Game was well made. I find it so interesting that any sort of confrontation with Russia today is always thought of in reference to the Cold War, while anything happening in the Middle East or Asia is ‘the new Great Game’. It seems people often forget that the very basis of the Great Game was the suspicion and competition between Britain and Russia: Asia just happened to be the board on which the game was played. Another interesting angle to this whole affair is that during the Great Game, Britain was often hyper-sensitive to Russian foreign policy which in turn drove so many of the decisions being made in London and Delhi…rightly or wrongly.
Mark Galeotti
/ April 7, 2014Thanks – and, browsing your blog, I see this is a parallel you’ve also raised, albeit in a different direction.
hacampbell
/ April 8, 2014Yes, it was one of those classic moments writing about foreign affairs – just after I write about needing to be friends with Russia they invade Crimea and the international mood shifts completely.
Dave Page - Gloucester
/ April 8, 2014I still think that Putin has returned to the bunker mentality of East Berlin and his decisions are based there and not on today?