Just a quick heads-up. There is now a report on my talk in parliament in London on ‘The Military Dimension of Russia’s Policy toward Ukraine: Should the West Be Worried?‘ under the auspices of the Henry Jackson Society here and also a full transcript of my opening remarks. Although the US government and NATO commander seems still to be suggesting Russian military action is imminent, my view is that the danger of that is receding; I hope I will be proved right. The next day, I spoke at the European Council on Foreign Relations about the political impact on Russia of sanctions, and you can hear a podcast of my comments here. I still suspect that future historians may conclude that when Putin took Crimea he lost not only Ukraine but, ultimately, the Kremlin.
On Russia, Ukraine, sanctions and war
Posted by Mark Galeotti on April 4, 2014
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/04/04/on-russia-ukraine-sanctions-and-war/
What Would A Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Look Like?
Not a new Cold War: Great Game II
-
Latest Books
Osprey: Essential Histories ‘Russia’s Wars in Chechnya, 1994-2009’ Coming late 2014 Mark Galeotti
This blog's author, Dr Mark Galeotti has been researching Russian history and security issues since the late 1980s.
Educated at Cambridge University and the LSE, he is now Professor of Global Affairs at the Center for Global Affairs of New York University's School of Professional Studies, Director of its Initiative for the Study of Emerging Threats, and an associate member of NYU's History and Russian & Slavic Studies departments. Until 2008, he was head of the History department at Keele University in the UK as well as director of its Organised Russian & Eurasian Crime Research Unit.
His books include the edited collections 'The Politics of Security in Modern Russia' (Ashgate), 'Russian & Soviet Organized Crime' (Ashgate) and 'Global Crime Today' (Routledge) and he is a regular contributor to Jane's Intelligence Review, Oxford Analytica and many other outlets. He writes regular columns for the Moscow Times and Business New Europe.
RSS Feed
My twitter feed
- Jeff Shell of @RFERL barred from #Russia. USA, unlike EU, hasn't sanctioned Kremlin arch-cheerleader Kiselev. I wonder if that'll change... 23 minutes ago
- RT @FWesslau: Last day to apply for job as Programme Coordinator of the @ECFR Wider Europe Programme! ecfr.eu/pages/jobs 56 minutes ago
- RT @OHorkyHluchan: Happy and proud to announce that @MarkGaleotti will join @IIR_PRG in September. iir.cz/article/dr-mar…. #security #Russ… 1 hour ago
- Satellite photos suggest HQ of SVR, #Russia's foreign intel svc, doubled in size since 2007 - via @intelNewsOrg intelnews.org/2016/07/14/01-… 3 hours ago
- RT @llywelyn: Hospital administrater from PD. James novel as PM, Bertie Wooster as Foreign Secretary, whole country is running by Ministry… 3 hours ago
Videos
Speaking on corruption on 'Russia's Rotten Core' panel at Chatham House, 2012
Speaking on corruption on The Big Think, 2012
Speaking about assassination of mob boss Usoyan on Varney & Co, Fox Business Network
Speaking on Russian espionage on Bloomberg TV, 2010
A friendlier Russia in 2013? A one-minute "geopolitical surprise" prediction for Wikistrat
On Bloomberg Surveillance, 26 March 2013, talking about Russia and Cyprus
On CNBC, 6 September 2013, talking about Russia and Syria
On RT with Oxana Boyko on 17 April 2014, talking about covert actions
Forthcoming Books and Projects
VORY (A history of Russian organised crime)
CRIMINAL WORLD (long-term monograph project on organised crime worldwide and throughout history)Categories
- Book Review
- Central Asia
- Central Europe
- Chechnya
- Corruption
- Cossacks
- Crime
- Czech Republic
- FSB
- FSO
- GRU
- Intelligence
- Interior Troops (VV)
- Investigative Committee
- Military – Russia
- MVD
- North Caucasus
- Organized Crime – Russia
- Organized Crime – Transnational
- Police
- Police Reform
- Prosecutor General
- Russian History
- Russian Military
- Russian Politics
- Russian Prisons
- Security
- Soviet History
- Spetsnaz
- SVR
- Terrorism
- Ukraine
- Uncategorized
Blogroll
- A Good Treaty
- All the Russias (NYU Jordan Center)
- Backyard Safari (in German)
- Da Russophile
- Edward Lucas
- Eurasia Daily Monitor
- Ghosts of Alexander (Afghanistan & Central Asia)
- Johnson’s Russia List
- No Yardstick
- Putinania
- Russia and CIS Defense & Policy
- Russian Defense Policy
- Russian Economic Reform
- Russian Military Reform
- Sean's Russia Blog
- Siberian Light
- The Crime-Conflict Nexus
- The Global Citizen (CGA NYU)
- The Kremlin Stooge
- The Oil & The Glory (Steve LeVine)
- The Power Vertical (RFE/RL)
- The View East
- Window on Eurasia (Paul Goble)
- Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.
SFPalladin
/ April 4, 2014Dr. Galeotti:
I enjoyed reading your remarks. If Russia does invade Eastern Ukraine, how likely is it that their would be protracted partisan resistance in the countryside? I’m mindful of the fact that the Ukrainian nationalists were able to resist the Soviets well into the 1950’s.
Thanks.
Best regards.
Greg Smith San Francisco
Mark Galeotti
/ April 6, 2014It’s certainly possible, as Dick Krickus has suggested here, but at the same time this is not Chechnya or Afghanistan. I think we’d see passive resistance and some terrorist-style partisan operations, but nothing on a massive scale. Fortunately, I think the likelihood of any such invasion is receding.
padraeg
/ April 6, 2014Of course the probability of Putin advancing diminishes every day, but only as Nato coalesces, & East Europe prepares for war. Hitler too may have doomed his leadership, viewed erroneously as in any way democratic. Similarly, Putin has done the same… UNLESS he attacks. Then, he is following the strategy of Napoleon – when necessary to prop up one popularity, and hold on power, attack. If you lose, attack again, quickly! The only plausible defense is to prepare a strong offense. I’d never want to use it!
hacampbell
/ April 7, 2014I thought your point about the Cold War vs Great Game was well made. I find it so interesting that any sort of confrontation with Russia today is always thought of in reference to the Cold War, while anything happening in the Middle East or Asia is ‘the new Great Game’. It seems people often forget that the very basis of the Great Game was the suspicion and competition between Britain and Russia: Asia just happened to be the board on which the game was played. Another interesting angle to this whole affair is that during the Great Game, Britain was often hyper-sensitive to Russian foreign policy which in turn drove so many of the decisions being made in London and Delhi…rightly or wrongly.
Mark Galeotti
/ April 7, 2014Thanks – and, browsing your blog, I see this is a parallel you’ve also raised, albeit in a different direction.
hacampbell
/ April 8, 2014Yes, it was one of those classic moments writing about foreign affairs – just after I write about needing to be friends with Russia they invade Crimea and the international mood shifts completely.
Dave Page - Gloucester
/ April 8, 2014I still think that Putin has returned to the bunker mentality of East Berlin and his decisions are based there and not on today?