Umarov steps back from stepping down

So, on 24 July Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov names Aslanbek Vadalov as his deputy and successor. On 1 August, he then announces that he is stepping down, a fact duly reported on rebel mouthpiece websites. And then a couple of days later they are posting his retraction, and his claim that the initial video message from him was “completely fabricated.” What on earth is going on?

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Who is Aslambek Vadalov?

Following the surprise news of the resignation of Doku Umarov as ‘Emir of the Caucasus Emirate’ and commander of the Chechen rebel forces, attention has inevitably focused on his successor, Aslambek Vadalov, and the trajectory he followed to his new position.

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Umarov gives up: hands poisoned chalice to Vadalov

Doku Umarov, Chechen rebel commander and self-proclaimed ‘Emir of the Caucasus Emirate’ has proven to be a disastrously poor leader for the remaining insurrection in Chechnya, but if he had one quality it appeared to be a talent for self-deception which allowed him not just to talk as a victor but seem to believe his own rhetoric, even as if slipped further from his grasp. That is perhaps the most surprising aspect of the news that he has stepped down in favour of Aslambek Vadalov, who on 24 July he had made his successor in case of his death.

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Debate on the FSB law

There has been some interesting discussion within the blogosphere about the new FSB law. The best I’ve seen has been in A Good Treaty, with an excellent dissection of the law (here) and a follow-up looking at my and Leonid Nikitinskii’s take on the law (here) which has also led to some lively and insightful debate in the comments section. Well worth a look.

Russian crime kingpin Tariel Oniani convicted: crackdown or conspiracy?

On 19 July, Russian-based organised crime boss Tariel Oniani (also known as Tariel Mulukhov or ‘Taro’)) was sentenced to 10 years in maximum-security prison for 2009’s kidnap in Moscow of fellow Georgian businessman ‘Johnny’ Manadze, for whose release he was demanding a $500,000 ransom. His conviction in Moscow’s Khamovnichesky District Court reflects a new and distinctly less exalted chapter in the life of one of Russia’s most powerful but also most unruly kingpins. It may be a sign of a new commitment by the state to crack down on the godfathers, but could also reflect a roundabout way for his fellow gangsters to deal with a threat to them all and the fragile underworld balance of power.

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New FSB law: not such a bad thing after all

The new law on the Federal Security Service (FSB) which has been approved by the lower chamber and is pretty much guaranteed to reach the statute books, is on the face of it a retrograde step, easily characterised by its critics as another measure to bring back the Soviet-era police state. After all, it relegalises the KGB’s old practice of ‘precautionary conversations’, of calling in dissidents, liberals and other presumed trouble-makers to warn them to mend their ways, a piece of heavy-handed intimidation against which only the most hardened critic of the state is impervious. However, I’d suggest that there is scope to see some shred of silver lining in this cloud.

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