My latest Moscow News column looks at the assassination of three Chechens in Istanbul and the likelihood that it was a Russian intelligence operation (whether by the FSB, SVR or GRU). Obviously, assassinations are essentially Bad Things, and criminals ought to have their guilt proven in a court. While writing it, though, I did come to wonder how and why this was different from the drone strikes we see every week, Mossad (presumably) killing a Hamas leader in Dubai or, indeed, the operation against Osama Bin Laden. That’s a real, not a polemical question: in an age when terrorism is commonly transnational, and when the mechanisms for having insurgents (or their fund-raisers, logistical managers and ideological recruiting sergeants) arrested, tried or extradited are so often complex and legally- and politically-fraught, are we heading into a future in which such actions will become more, not less common? There’s already quite a solid body of academic literature in law, politics and intelligence journals on assassinations – ‘extrajudicial killings’ as the favored euphemism goes – which also reflects policy discussions. In an age in which high-speed communications has conditioned us and our masters also to high-speed responses, the temptation to reach for the quick kinetic fix must often be hard to resist for those powers with the covert capacity to carry out such operations and the geopolitical muscle (or indifference) to pay the potential political price.
The not-really-so-mysterious deaths of Chechens in Turkey – and towards a future of ‘extrajudicial killings’
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 3, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/the-not-really-so-mysterious-deaths-of-chechens-in-turkey-and-towards-a-future-of-extrajudicial-killings/
Doku Umarov: Russia’s second-best friend in Chechnya?
One of the virtues about having old dogs is that you have slow, gentle walks with ample time to ruminate. While contemplating the entirely welcome news of the death by drone of Anwar al-Awlaki, I began wondering quite why Chechen ’emir’ Doku Umarov was still alive. Although he and his people have a goodly degree of wilderness smarts, I don’t get the sense that they are always that careful with communications intelligence (which after all did for his several-times-removed predecessor Dzhokar Dudaev) and there are enough fissures and rivalries amongst ‘Caucasus Emirate’ leaders that one might have expected some actionable leaks as to his plans or location (as may have happened to Shamil Basaev).
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 1, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/01/doku-umarov-russias-second-best-friend-in-chechnya/
Russia’s military and its ability to assert its power in the ‘Near Abroad’
Belatedly, I note my latest column in the Moscow News: ‘A true “Medvedev” doctrine,’ on Russia’s current ‘Center’ and ‘Union Shield’ military exercises and what they say about current priorities and threat evaluations. Is (was?) there a ‘Medvedev Doctrine’ that envisages interventions in Central Asia to prop up failing regimes? I hope not and think that ultimately Moscow would rather not, but my concern is that – as in Afghanistan in 1979 – the Kremlin gets sucked in believing (a) that regime change will hurt Russia, (b) that it has not alternative, but in any case (c) that any intervention can be neat, successful and brief. I’d love to be able to reassure myself that fundamental political lessons were learned from the Soviet Afghan war and also the USA’s experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan…
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 1, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/01/russias-military-and-its-ability-to-assert-its-power-in-the-near-abroad/
Russian Wetwork in Istanbul?
Three Chechens were gunned down in central Istanbul on 16 September. The general assumption, which has surfaced in Izvestiya, in pro-rebel websites and in the Turkish press, is that this was a Russian intelligence hit.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on September 22, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/09/22/russian-wetwork-in-istanbul/
Good news about Russian crime (even while recognizing how far there is to go)
Maybe I’m going soft in my old age, or maybe something really is changing – a little. My latest Moscow News column riffs off my blogpost on the conviction of Sergei Butorin – ‘Osya’ – on multiple murder counts to tease out some good news from Russia on the law enforcement front. Let’s be clear about this: there are still numerous and massive problems, not least of which is the endemic culture of corruption. Even the recent purge was often an excuse for further extortion, as venal senior officers gouged bribes out of their underlings in return for a clear report. But while holding in our minds that Russia is still plagues top to bottom with corruption, criminality and the abuse of power, let’s not refuse to acknowledge that there are some signs of progress…
Posted by Mark Galeotti on September 12, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/09/12/good-news-about-russian-crime-even-while-recognizing-how-far-there-is-to-go/
Wikileaks (4) – DEA and Russian authorities cooperate in OPERATION BALTIC STRIKE drug busts
Continuing my episodic trawl through Wikileaks for crime-related cables, this and this DEA-related ones caught my eye, relating to OPERATION BALTIC STRIKE, a joint initiative against traffickers smuggling cocaine from Latin America (especially Ecuador) to Russia. As with yesterday’s post, they offer an encouraging glimpse into how cooperation with the Russian police can work (even if it doesn’t always, this is still much better than a few years ago). Direct cop-to-cop cooperation is much more effective than we might fear – and often works informally at levels over and above what the protocols technically allow for, and this is a good thing.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on September 7, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/09/07/wikileaks-4-dea-and-russian-authorities-cooperate-in-operation-baltic-strike-drug-busts/
