Pragmatism, fear and geopolitics: why Moscow still backs Assad

putin-assad-cartoon-400x323Just a note about my latest post for Blouin News, on why Moscow still backs Assad’s toxic regime. Not because Putin loves dictators, not because of arms deals or a Mediterranean port, but because the Russians are terrified of the likely outcome of another exercise in US arms-length power projection. Cruise missiles can blow things up admirably well; they cannot build a single thing.

Pragmatism, fear and geopolitics: why Moscow still backs Assad

Russia has been Bashar al-Assad’s staunchest protector. Although the British parliament’s decision not to intervene militarily in Syria has disappointed Washington, as of writing it seems unlikely to affect its resolution to strike against the Assad’s regime. When it does so, it will inevitably anger Moscow and further contribute to its belief that the United States seeks to be a “monopolar” power that acts however it wants on the world stage.

But why has Moscow been so stalwart in its support of an undeniably odious regime? It is possible to talk glibly of a natural affinity between autocrats (although Vladimir Putin clearly still commands the support of a clear majority of Russians) or a fear of some global swing against authoritarian regimes (though there are many dominos between Damascus and Moscow that would fall first), the answer is a mix of pragmatism, fear and geopolitics.

Continue reading here.

Defense Ministry Innovations Day: the most fun toys for the boys

Of course the Americans have the highest-tech military gizmos around, their “just over the horizon, honest” toys looking like what you’d get if Tom Clancy ever scripted an episode of Thunderbirds (if anyone else remembers it…). There’s the Northrop-Grumman X-47B dogfighting drone, the grenade-firing XM25 Counter Defilade Target Engagement Systems (which doesn’t sound macho enough, so it’s informally “The Punisher”), the massive, almost-bomb-proof Ground Combat Vehicle (think of a metal fortress on tracks). But last week was Russia’s Defense Ministry Innovations Day, so let’s not forget all their cool and sometimes bizarre new ideas… and what they may tell us about Russia’s military.

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OMON, Spetsnaz and Kadyrovtsy, oh my: ‘Russian Security and Paramilitary Forces since 1991’

imageJust a brief note: my book Russian Security and Paramilitary Forces since 1991 is out this week, published by Osprey Books in their Elite series. I talk a little more about it here, but as a short, concise (and wonderfully-illustrated), English-language guide to the plethora of security forces in Russia today, I pride myself that it is unique.

Here is the blurb and contents:

Russian Security and Paramilitary Forces since 1991

Elite 197
Author: Mark Galeotti
Illustrator: Johnny Shumate

While the size of Russia’s regular forces has shrunk recently, its security and paramilitary elements have become increasingly powerful. Under the Putin regime they have proliferated and importantly seem set to remain Russia’s most active armed agencies for the immediate future. In parallel, within the murky world where government and private interests intersect, a number of paramilitary ‘private armies’ operate almost as vigilantes, with government toleration or approval.This book offers a succinct overview of the official, semi-official and unofficial agencies that pursue Russian government and quasi-government objectives by armed means, from the 200,000-strong Interior Troops, through Police and other independent departmental forces, down to private security firms. Featuring rare photographs, and detailed colour plates of uniforms, insignia and equipment, this study by a renowned authority explores the Putin regime’s shadowy special-forces apparatus, active in an array of counter-terrorist and counter-mafia wars since 1991.

Contents:

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Who actually is in the Investigations Committee?

SKThe Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation (SKRF) is, of course, the current bête noir of every liberal Russia-watcher, but beyond big bad Bastrykin and his press spokesman/vicar on earth/Mouth of Sauron Vladimir Markin, we hear and know very little about just who else its staff may be. I’m thus indebted to Sean Guillory for pointing me towards an article in Russkaya Planeta (a source I confess new to me) which cited data from a 2010 issue of that riveting page-turner The Journal of the Investigations Committee (Vestnik Sledstvennogo komiteta) which provide a slightly-dated but nonetheless fascinating snapshot.

At the time, the full-time complement of the SK was 19,156 people (excluding military personnel and civilian  investigators working in the military but assigned to the Committee).

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The Rise of the Russian Judocracy

You too can have a 1/6th-scale vozhd

You too can have a 1/6th-scale vozhd

It is hardly surprising that Vladimir Putin made such a big deal of mourning his former judo coach and mentor Anatoly Rakhlin this week. If nothing else, it again highlights that, as well as such broad circles as the KGB veterans (and siloviki in general), the “Peterburgers,” the “Ozero Dacha” clique, the “Orthodox Chekists” and similar factions within the sistema, there is clearly a judocracy, too. “Being a judo sparring partner of Vladimir Putin’s is clearly a good career move,” I last month in one of my Moscow News columns, on the mooted appointment of Viktor Zolotov, one such judoka, to become deputy head of the MVD Interior Troops. He was hardly the first:

Arkady Rotenberg, who learned judo alongside [Putin] as a teenage, is now a billionaire; the $7.4 billion contracts his companies won for the 2014 Sochi Games can’t hurt his bottom line. Igor Sidorkevich, president of the St. Petersburg Judo Federation is apparently to head the new military police. And now former sparring partner Viktor Zolotov is tipped to become the deputy head of the Interior Ministry’s 180,000 paramilitary VV Interior Troops, and heir apparent to their current commander, Nikolai Rogozhkin, who is of retirement age.

Zolotov, it is worth noting, is currently head of the Presidential Security Service. Since I wrote the above, the appointment of Sidorkevich — sorry, Colonel Sidorkevich — to head the military police has been confirmed. But we shouldn’t also forget billionaire Boris Rotenberg, Arkady’s brother and another judoka, who sparred at St Petersburg’s Yavara-Neva judo club, which Arkady runs. His wealth pales before that of Gennadi Timchenko, though, co-founder and honorary chairman of Yavara-Neva and the boss of commodity trading firm Gunvor, who is worth $14.1 B according to Forbes. (And, it is widely rumored, Putin’s bagman and the ‘banker’ of the Russian deep state.) Vasily Shestakov, another co-founder of Yavara-Neva and a co-author with Putin of judo books, is a State Duma deputy, president of FIAS (the International Sambo [unarmed combat] Federation) and one of the key figures in Russia’s “soft power” initiatives, having been named as a potential media chief and now being a prime mover in the new Positive Russia Foundation.*

It speaks volumes about the way power in Putin’s Russia is essentially the power of an autocrat’s court, where factions crystallize not just around charismatic individuals, common ideas or shared self-interest, but even around a sport. Rich, powerful, well-connected: all hail the new Russian judocracy!

Update: August 31, 2012: Yuri Trutnev

Yuri_TrutnevLet us welcome a new member to the judocracy (kinda: I think sambo and karate count): Yuri Petrovich Trutnev, the new Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District, replacing Viktor Ishaev, who has been sacked, although officially not because of shortcomings in the handling of the present terrible floods. Formerly Governor of Perm region, and Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology, but most recently a special assistant to the president, Trutnev has been made not just Putin’s  plenipotentiary in the Far East but also a deputy prime minister and the prospective head of a new government commission to be formed to develop the region. By the way, he practices  free-style wrestling, sambo and karate, and in  2005 he was elected co-chair of the Russian Union of Martial Arts, which he co-founded with Rosatom chief Sergei Kirienko, a fellow aficionado.

*A Postscript on the Positive Russia Foundation

I was curious to see just what this outfit was and what it did. I am little the wiser having dug a little. It was reportedly set up in June, but as near as I can tell it has no website or other presence beyond some media puffs at the time of its foundation. It is registered to the address of the company secretaries in East Sussex, with Timothy Lewin listed as its director, presumably the same Timothy Lewin who is a Russia/fSU-oriented commodity trader and consultant. Watch this space.

Obama blinked

A sulky summit can be better than none at all - if one party is willing to raise the tough issues

A sulky summit can be better than none at all – if one party is willing to raise the tough issues

It was probably inevitable that Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin would not be sitting down for a one-to-one meeting in September. The US president had made the Snowden case into a ‘red line’ issue and Putin had neither the grounds nor the desire to back down. The way this decision was made, though, underlines what is wrong with so much of US policy towards Russia, the degree to which it is rooted in a failure to come to terms with Putin and his approach and eschew half-measures.

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