The UK Daily Telegraph made quite a splash with the leak of what seems to be a secret internal FSB (Federal Security Service) document promulgating a new directive on the “observation, identification, possible return to the Russian Federation” of suspected terrorists, extremists and wanted criminals. It added that “under special directives” the FSB and the SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) could also be tasked with the “elimination outside of the Russian Federation in the countries of Near Abroad and in the European Union, of the leaders of unlawful terrorist groups and organisations, extremist formations and associations, of individuals who have left Russia illegally [and are] wanted by federal law enforcement.” All good, exciting stuff and coincidentally fitting well with the recent assassination of Chechens in Istanbul.
All posts in category Terrorism
The FSB’s alleged order on hunting and killing targets abroad – hard to credit
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 4, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/the-fsbs-alleged-order-on-hunting-and-killing-targets-abroad-hard-to-credit/
The not-really-so-mysterious deaths of Chechens in Turkey – and towards a future of ‘extrajudicial killings’
My latest Moscow News column looks at the assassination of three Chechens in Istanbul and the likelihood that it was a Russian intelligence operation (whether by the FSB, SVR or GRU). Obviously, assassinations are essentially Bad Things, and criminals ought to have their guilt proven in a court. While writing it, though, I did come to wonder how and why this was different from the drone strikes we see every week, Mossad (presumably) killing a Hamas leader in Dubai or, indeed, the operation against Osama Bin Laden. That’s a real, not a polemical question: in an age when terrorism is commonly transnational, and when the mechanisms for having insurgents (or their fund-raisers, logistical managers and ideological recruiting sergeants) arrested, tried or extradited are so often complex and legally- and politically-fraught, are we heading into a future in which such actions will become more, not less common? There’s already quite a solid body of academic literature in law, politics and intelligence journals on assassinations – ‘extrajudicial killings’ as the favored euphemism goes – which also reflects policy discussions. In an age in which high-speed communications has conditioned us and our masters also to high-speed responses, the temptation to reach for the quick kinetic fix must often be hard to resist for those powers with the covert capacity to carry out such operations and the geopolitical muscle (or indifference) to pay the potential political price.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 3, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/the-not-really-so-mysterious-deaths-of-chechens-in-turkey-and-towards-a-future-of-extrajudicial-killings/
Doku Umarov: Russia’s second-best friend in Chechnya?
One of the virtues about having old dogs is that you have slow, gentle walks with ample time to ruminate. While contemplating the entirely welcome news of the death by drone of Anwar al-Awlaki, I began wondering quite why Chechen ’emir’ Doku Umarov was still alive. Although he and his people have a goodly degree of wilderness smarts, I don’t get the sense that they are always that careful with communications intelligence (which after all did for his several-times-removed predecessor Dzhokar Dudaev) and there are enough fissures and rivalries amongst ‘Caucasus Emirate’ leaders that one might have expected some actionable leaks as to his plans or location (as may have happened to Shamil Basaev).
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 1, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/01/doku-umarov-russias-second-best-friend-in-chechnya/
Russian Wetwork in Istanbul?
Three Chechens were gunned down in central Istanbul on 16 September. The general assumption, which has surfaced in Izvestiya, in pro-rebel websites and in the Turkish press, is that this was a Russian intelligence hit.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on September 22, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/09/22/russian-wetwork-in-istanbul/
Al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda and Chechnya
The news that the al-Qaeda governing shura (council) has chosen Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden’s deputy, as his successor, is hardly that surprising. Despite chatter that a younger figure such as Egyptian former special forces officer Saif al-Adel might take over (that was one story, possibly floated by a cabal of AQ leaders trying to see if there was any wider constituency for change), the shura went for the conservative, continuity candidate. After all, al-Zawahiri has been a or the key figure in shaping AQ’s strategy. He is also intelligent and has religious gravitas. However, he is also distinctly uncharismatic, uncompromising, seems to regard anyone who disagrees with him as a fool or an apostate and perhaps most importantly has nothing new to offer. We may see a short-term flurry of rhetoric and activity as he seeks to affirm his authority, but I don’t see him being able to halt or reverse AQ’s long-term decline.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on June 16, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/06/16/al-zawahiri-al-qaeda-and-chechnya/
Postscript on Domodedovo: Khloponin and I, eye to eye
I’m delighted to see that presidential (and prime ministerial) plenipotentiary to the North Caucasus Alexander Khloponin seems to be willing to follow my lead, with his recent statement that while he feels that Umarov was involved with the Domodedovo bombing (“There is involvement; Doku Umarov’s participation is being investigated”) he does not see him as being the instigator (Umarov “is no longer as influential as before in the Caucasus in regard to defining positions or setting tasks”). It’s very satisfying to see that he thus appears to be following my earlier line! Obviously my tongue is firmly in my cheek here, but there is a more serious point to be made in that I am encouraged by Khloponin’s willingness not to take the easy route and characterize Umarov as the fiendish mastermind of all North Caucasus terrorism. Doing that, after all, not only gives Umarov more authority and thus power than he deserves, but it also misinforms and misguides policy. Combine that with his support for efforts to build bridges with Islamic and community leaders in the region and suggestions of a renewed effort to tackle the endemic poverty and income disparities which are such a problem in the region (over and above the grandiose and probably futile efforts to build tourist destinations which will largely enrich gangsters, property speculators and officials), and there are faint grounds for optimism. Khloponin’s first year, to be blunt, has been a disappointment, but maybe he has learned enough that he can make his second one count?
Posted by Mark Galeotti on February 11, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/02/11/postscript-on-domodedovo-khloponin-and-i-eye-to-eye/
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