Chechen parliament attack: a big deal?

This morning (19 October), three insurgents launched a suicide attack on the Chechen parliament building in Grozny, killing two security guards and a parliamentary officer. Following another, larger attack on Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov’s home village, Tsentoroi, on 29 August, this inevitably triggered the usual questions about what this upsurge in violence means.

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One more rebel leader down: Seyfullah’s death further weakens Umarov

One of Chechen ’emir’ Doku Umarov’s closest allies has been the movement’s qadi (supreme judge) and ’emir of Dagestan’ Seifullah of Gubden (Magomed Vagabov) – not to be confused with the Kabardino-Balkarian Emir Seifullah (Anzor Astemirov), who was killed in March. In the current leadership crisis, Seifullah strongly backed Umarov. However, according to both the Russians and the rebel mouthpiece website Kavkazcenter, Seifullah was killed by government forces on 20 August. No need to mourn for the mastermind of the March Moscow metro bombings, but Umarov may well have particular cause to regret his departure. Seifullah was a very useful ally and supporter: he was from the younger generation of field commanders who generally gravitate towards Umarov’s rival, Vadalov; he had a track record of murderous results that the notably-unsuccessful Umarov needs; he has both spiritual/judicial as well as military authority; and he could deliver a degree of support in Dagestan, bolstering the claims of the ’emirate’ to be a pan-Islamic North Caucasus entity. For Umarov, engaged in a political struggle to wrest momentum from his younger rival (and hoping to do so in part through engineering some terrorist ‘spectacular’, precisely Seifullah’s forte), this is the worst news – at the worst possible time.

Incidentally, there is a good profile of the latest fallen Seifullah by Mairbek Vatchagaev on the Jamestown Foundation website, here.

Umarov’s volte-face opens split in the Chechen rebel ‘Caucasus Emirate’

Given the whole resignation-to-rebutal farce around Doku Umarov’s position, it is dangerous to leap to conclusions, especially on the basis of news of uncertain validity, but if the latest from rebel mouthpiece Kavkaz Center is to be believed, deputy-turned-successor-turned-deputy Aslambek Vadalov has resigned his position as deputy emir.

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Umarov steps back from stepping down

So, on 24 July Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov names Aslanbek Vadalov as his deputy and successor. On 1 August, he then announces that he is stepping down, a fact duly reported on rebel mouthpiece websites. And then a couple of days later they are posting his retraction, and his claim that the initial video message from him was “completely fabricated.” What on earth is going on?

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Debate on the FSB law

There has been some interesting discussion within the blogosphere about the new FSB law. The best I’ve seen has been in A Good Treaty, with an excellent dissection of the law (here) and a follow-up looking at my and Leonid Nikitinskii’s take on the law (here) which has also led to some lively and insightful debate in the comments section. Well worth a look.

New FSB law: not such a bad thing after all

The new law on the Federal Security Service (FSB) which has been approved by the lower chamber and is pretty much guaranteed to reach the statute books, is on the face of it a retrograde step, easily characterised by its critics as another measure to bring back the Soviet-era police state. After all, it relegalises the KGB’s old practice of ‘precautionary conversations’, of calling in dissidents, liberals and other presumed trouble-makers to warn them to mend their ways, a piece of heavy-handed intimidation against which only the most hardened critic of the state is impervious. However, I’d suggest that there is scope to see some shred of silver lining in this cloud.

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