New head of the GOU: Lt Gen Vladimir Zarudnitsky

The Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Directorate (GOU) has a distinguished past, a rather lackluster present and an uncertain future. Sometimes rightly described as the ‘brain of the army‘ (unkind souls may regard that as a rather low bar, akin to being the ‘soul of the tax office’ or ‘heart of the Chekist’), the GOU is at once a planning body, a liaison agency with other federal power agencies such as the MVD and FSB, a kind of operational think tank and an incubator of the brightest military thinkers. Or at least that’s the plan. In recent years it has been in disarray: four chiefs in four years, a massive cut in staff from 500 to 150, and a very poor performance in the 2008 Georgian invasion, which was in a number of ways handled very badly. On the other hand, given the paucity of present military thought (something Chief of the General Staff Makarov himself admits), and the current drive to reform the military and create a meaningful operational art for the new brigade-based structure, I’d suggest that the need for the GOU has never been greater.

Anyway, on October 3 GOU chief Lt. Gen. Tretyak for formally dismissed, although he had requested to be released on medical grounds in the summer and had already physically moved out of his office. In his place comes Lt. Gen. Vladimir Zarudnitsky, a line officer with a reasonable but not especially impressive resume (more…)

The FSB’s alleged order on hunting and killing targets abroad – hard to credit

The UK Daily Telegraph made quite a splash with the leak of what seems to be a secret internal FSB (Federal Security Service) document promulgating a new directive on the “observation, identification, possible return to the Russian Federation” of suspected terrorists, extremists and wanted criminals. It added  that “under special directives” the FSB and the SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) could also be tasked with the “elimination outside of the Russian Federation in the countries of Near Abroad and in the European Union, of the leaders of unlawful terrorist groups and organisations, extremist formations and associations, of individuals who have left Russia illegally [and are] wanted by federal law enforcement.” All good, exciting stuff and coincidentally fitting well with the recent assassination of Chechens in Istanbul.

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The not-really-so-mysterious deaths of Chechens in Turkey – and towards a future of ‘extrajudicial killings’

My latest Moscow News column looks at the assassination of three Chechens in Istanbul and the likelihood that it was a Russian intelligence operation (whether by the FSB, SVR or GRU). Obviously, assassinations are essentially Bad Things, and criminals ought to have their guilt proven in a court. While writing it, though, I did come to wonder how and why this was different from the drone strikes we see every week, Mossad (presumably) killing a Hamas leader in Dubai or, indeed, the operation against Osama Bin Laden. That’s a real, not a polemical question: in an age when terrorism is commonly transnational, and when the mechanisms for having insurgents (or their fund-raisers, logistical managers and ideological recruiting sergeants) arrested, tried or extradited are so often complex and legally- and politically-fraught, are we heading into a future in which such actions will become more, not less common? There’s already quite a solid body of academic literature in law, politics and intelligence journals on assassinations – ‘extrajudicial killings’ as the favored euphemism goes – which also reflects policy discussions. In an age in which high-speed communications has conditioned us and our masters also to high-speed responses, the temptation to reach for the quick kinetic fix must often be hard to resist for those powers with the covert capacity to carry out such operations and the geopolitical muscle (or indifference) to pay the potential political price.

Doku Umarov: Russia’s second-best friend in Chechnya?

One of the virtues about having old dogs is that you have slow, gentle walks with ample time to ruminate. While contemplating the entirely welcome news of the death by drone of Anwar al-Awlaki, I began wondering quite why Chechen ’emir’ Doku Umarov was still alive. Although he and his people have a goodly degree of wilderness smarts, I don’t get the sense that they are always that careful with communications intelligence (which after all did for his several-times-removed predecessor Dzhokar Dudaev) and there are enough fissures and rivalries amongst ‘Caucasus Emirate’ leaders that one might have expected some actionable leaks as to his plans or location (as may have happened to Shamil Basaev).

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Russia’s military and its ability to assert its power in the ‘Near Abroad’

Belatedly, I note my latest column in the Moscow News: ‘A true “Medvedev” doctrine,’ on Russia’s current ‘Center’ and ‘Union Shield’ military exercises and what they say about current priorities and threat evaluations. Is (was?) there a ‘Medvedev Doctrine’ that envisages interventions in Central Asia to prop up failing regimes? I hope not and think that ultimately Moscow would rather not, but my concern is that – as in Afghanistan in 1979 – the Kremlin gets sucked in believing (a) that regime change will hurt Russia, (b) that it has not alternative, but in any case (c) that any intervention can be neat, successful and brief. I’d love to be able to reassure myself that fundamental political lessons were learned from the Soviet Afghan war and also the USA’s experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan…

Russian Wetwork in Istanbul?

Three Chechens were gunned down in central Istanbul on 16 September. The general assumption, which has surfaced in Izvestiya, in pro-rebel websites and in the Turkish press, is that this was a Russian intelligence hit.

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