The Rise of the Russian Judocracy

You too can have a 1/6th-scale vozhd

You too can have a 1/6th-scale vozhd

It is hardly surprising that Vladimir Putin made such a big deal of mourning his former judo coach and mentor Anatoly Rakhlin this week. If nothing else, it again highlights that, as well as such broad circles as the KGB veterans (and siloviki in general), the “Peterburgers,” the “Ozero Dacha” clique, the “Orthodox Chekists” and similar factions within the sistema, there is clearly a judocracy, too. “Being a judo sparring partner of Vladimir Putin’s is clearly a good career move,” I last month in one of my Moscow News columns, on the mooted appointment of Viktor Zolotov, one such judoka, to become deputy head of the MVD Interior Troops. He was hardly the first:

Arkady Rotenberg, who learned judo alongside [Putin] as a teenage, is now a billionaire; the $7.4 billion contracts his companies won for the 2014 Sochi Games can’t hurt his bottom line. Igor Sidorkevich, president of the St. Petersburg Judo Federation is apparently to head the new military police. And now former sparring partner Viktor Zolotov is tipped to become the deputy head of the Interior Ministry’s 180,000 paramilitary VV Interior Troops, and heir apparent to their current commander, Nikolai Rogozhkin, who is of retirement age.

Zolotov, it is worth noting, is currently head of the Presidential Security Service. Since I wrote the above, the appointment of Sidorkevich — sorry, Colonel Sidorkevich — to head the military police has been confirmed. But we shouldn’t also forget billionaire Boris Rotenberg, Arkady’s brother and another judoka, who sparred at St Petersburg’s Yavara-Neva judo club, which Arkady runs. His wealth pales before that of Gennadi Timchenko, though, co-founder and honorary chairman of Yavara-Neva and the boss of commodity trading firm Gunvor, who is worth $14.1 B according to Forbes. (And, it is widely rumored, Putin’s bagman and the ‘banker’ of the Russian deep state.) Vasily Shestakov, another co-founder of Yavara-Neva and a co-author with Putin of judo books, is a State Duma deputy, president of FIAS (the International Sambo [unarmed combat] Federation) and one of the key figures in Russia’s “soft power” initiatives, having been named as a potential media chief and now being a prime mover in the new Positive Russia Foundation.*

It speaks volumes about the way power in Putin’s Russia is essentially the power of an autocrat’s court, where factions crystallize not just around charismatic individuals, common ideas or shared self-interest, but even around a sport. Rich, powerful, well-connected: all hail the new Russian judocracy!

Update: August 31, 2012: Yuri Trutnev

Yuri_TrutnevLet us welcome a new member to the judocracy (kinda: I think sambo and karate count): Yuri Petrovich Trutnev, the new Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District, replacing Viktor Ishaev, who has been sacked, although officially not because of shortcomings in the handling of the present terrible floods. Formerly Governor of Perm region, and Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology, but most recently a special assistant to the president, Trutnev has been made not just Putin’s  plenipotentiary in the Far East but also a deputy prime minister and the prospective head of a new government commission to be formed to develop the region. By the way, he practices  free-style wrestling, sambo and karate, and in  2005 he was elected co-chair of the Russian Union of Martial Arts, which he co-founded with Rosatom chief Sergei Kirienko, a fellow aficionado.

*A Postscript on the Positive Russia Foundation

I was curious to see just what this outfit was and what it did. I am little the wiser having dug a little. It was reportedly set up in June, but as near as I can tell it has no website or other presence beyond some media puffs at the time of its foundation. It is registered to the address of the company secretaries in East Sussex, with Timothy Lewin listed as its director, presumably the same Timothy Lewin who is a Russia/fSU-oriented commodity trader and consultant. Watch this space.

Obama blinked

A sulky summit can be better than none at all - if one party is willing to raise the tough issues

A sulky summit can be better than none at all – if one party is willing to raise the tough issues

It was probably inevitable that Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin would not be sitting down for a one-to-one meeting in September. The US president had made the Snowden case into a ‘red line’ issue and Putin had neither the grounds nor the desire to back down. The way this decision was made, though, underlines what is wrong with so much of US policy towards Russia, the degree to which it is rooted in a failure to come to terms with Putin and his approach and eschew half-measures.

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A battered cop, some marketplace raids, and what’s wrong with Russia

russia_raidIt started as a story about a cop getting mobbed in a marketplace. On July 27, a police officers were attacked by some two dozen people at Moscow’s Matveyevsky food market as they were detaining a Dagestani man who was suspected of raping a 15-year-old girl. One of them, Anton Kudryashov, sustained a severe head injury when he was struck in the brawl.

Cops, unsurprisingly, don’t take kindly to one of their own being beaten, doubly so when by ethnic minorities, triply when the attack is—as in this case—captured on video and spread across the internet. Moscow’s police launched a massive series of raids across the city, sweeping the marketplaces for illegal migrants and those suspected of involvement in other crimes. The rape suspect and the alleged cop-beater were both detained, along with more than a thousand others.

In many ways, though, it is the subsequent fallout that has been the most telling.

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Daydreaming: an Autumn surprise for Kadyrov

Putin could cut Kadyrov down to size

Putin could cut Kadyrov down to size

There is a distinct body of opinion that suggests that this autumn, Putin will have to do something dramatic–and I mean more than just bare-chestedly wrestling some new breed of furry predator–in order to reassert his political authority. In my latest column for Russia! magazine, I engage in some unashamedly unrealistic daydreaming and contemplate all the virtues in Putin turning on his Chechen warlord-satrap-PR nightmare, Ramzan Kadyrov and trying him for embezzlement and human rights abuses. I think it would be a bold and potentially-transformative act. I also think it is as likely as Medvedev launching a coup. After all, while I suggest in outline how it could be done (and if VVP wants a full operational plan, I’m sure he knows where to find me),

Even if it could be done, would it? Alas, here my daydream blows away in the chilly wind of realism. This would be a bold step and the irony is that badass action man Putin is a very cautious politician, one I cannot see making such a move. But nonetheless, this autumn may well see some bid to regain the initiative and persuade the country that the Kremlin still counts. If it is to be something more than another hamfisted PR efforts then it will have to be something bold, unexpected and meaningful. Vladimir Vladimirovich, I still humbly submit that liberating Chechnya from Kadyrov would be all three.

Update: Imprisoning Navalny: Short-Term Fears Undermine Medium-Term Logic

Just a quick and self-publicising note to the effect that my piece on the ‘logic’ of imprisoning Navalny–and the illogic of then letting him out on bail (“Just when the Kremlin looked to be moving into full-on Evil Empire mode, it wobbled”)– is now on the Russia! magazine website, right here.

There’s also some great discussion of the Navalny case in the latest Power Vertical podcast, available here (and I’ll have to assume the blame for the punny Star Wars title).

When nastiness seems to make a kind of sense…

I’ve filed a column for Russia! magazine that I hope will be up there soon, but the gist is that, however spiteful and devoid of legal rationale, there is a certain vicious logic to the Navalny sentencing. Let me just throw one paragraph up here. In the long run, Putinism is dying; in the short term, there will be a flurry of public and international dismay, but…

So it’s the medium term that is up for grabs and here, however much it distresses my liberal soul to admit it, the Kremlin was probably right to take the maximalist approach. Lenin, that arch pragmatist and, if they but realized it, perhaps the godfather of modern political technologists, understood that a basic pre-requisite for any revolution is a critical absence of will on the part of the elite. In other words, revolutionaries do not wrestle power away from the elites; they take it from the elite’s numbed fingers when it is unable or unwilling to resist. Unpleasant regimes tend not to fall so long as they stay unpleasant but also, and this is crucial, able to maintain control of the elite and the apparatus of coercion. Whatever one may say about the effect of foreign vacillation, the survival of Assad’s Syria is precisely because he has will, enough of the elite and violence on his side. It is unlikely to sustain him for ever—although as Ramzan Kadyrov proved, if you can truly grind down the public’s will to resist, then you win—but it means he has lasted longer than many dictators who tried to reform and conciliate.

Of course, what makes sense in the short- or medium-term, does not in the longer-term. The more the Kremlin piles on the pressure now, the more unpleasant and potentially explosive the endgame. In short, Putin may be buying a little more time now, for a lot more grief further down the line.

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