There have already been some excellent first-response pieces on today’s news of a Chechen plot to kill Putin being busted in Odessa, of which perhaps the best I’ve come across so far was from Ben Aris in BNE. (I’m sure there are other, equally splendid pieces already out there , too, for that matter.) I don’t want to reinvent any wheels here, so instead just want to make a few initial observations:
All posts in category North Caucasus
First thoughts on the Putin assassination plot
Posted by Mark Galeotti on February 27, 2012
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2012/02/27/first-thoughts-on-the-putin-assassination-plot/
Moscow’s Praetorians: the Kremlin’s security forces
Given the protests in Moscow and the deployment of riot police and security troops, I thought this was a good time to provide a quick update as to the security forces available in the capital, not least as a counter to some of the more fanciful suggestions about the imminent victory of people power. (more…)
Posted by Mark Galeotti on December 6, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/12/06/moscows-praetorians-the-kremlins-security-forces/
Reasons for Dagestan’s unrest: arbitrary authorities, Islam and unemployment
Very briefly, I just wanted to highlight the findings of a survey in the Caucasus publication Dosh, reported by Sergei Konovalov in today’s Nezavisimaya gazeta. With the cooperation of local NGOs, Dosh surveyed 2,117 people aged 18 to 80 years.Respondents were why they felt Dagestanis joined the insurgency. The findings were:
49.5% Because of the arbitrariness of the security forces, because they fear for their lives, or to avenge relatives
28.3% Because of their religious beliefs and a desire to establish Sharia law in Dagestan
20.8% Because of unemployment and a lack of alternative sources of opportunity
The article quotes a local journalist Nadira Isaeva, to the effect that most recruits were born in the 1980s and 1990s and thus grew up in a period of the collapse of state ideology, so “these people have chosen Islam and the search for justice in arms.” It’s interesting that even the more dovish strategists (including Khloponin) concentrate on economic opportunities, which is ranked third – although we must always be cautious with such data, as people do not always say (or even know) what truly motivates them. It really does emphasize just how toxic and delegitimating corruption, human rights abuses and a culture of impunity within the security forces can be, though. Given the new efforts to change the culture of the police (something which is laudable, but will take time and sustained political will), it will be interesting to see if anything similar spreads to the FSB, the Interior Troops, the military, etc in their dealings with locals. And, of course, there’s that perennial, thorny issue of corruption…
Posted by Mark Galeotti on November 2, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/reasons-for-dagestans-unrest-arbitrary-authorities-islam-and-unemployment/
The not-really-so-mysterious deaths of Chechens in Turkey – and towards a future of ‘extrajudicial killings’
My latest Moscow News column looks at the assassination of three Chechens in Istanbul and the likelihood that it was a Russian intelligence operation (whether by the FSB, SVR or GRU). Obviously, assassinations are essentially Bad Things, and criminals ought to have their guilt proven in a court. While writing it, though, I did come to wonder how and why this was different from the drone strikes we see every week, Mossad (presumably) killing a Hamas leader in Dubai or, indeed, the operation against Osama Bin Laden. That’s a real, not a polemical question: in an age when terrorism is commonly transnational, and when the mechanisms for having insurgents (or their fund-raisers, logistical managers and ideological recruiting sergeants) arrested, tried or extradited are so often complex and legally- and politically-fraught, are we heading into a future in which such actions will become more, not less common? There’s already quite a solid body of academic literature in law, politics and intelligence journals on assassinations – ‘extrajudicial killings’ as the favored euphemism goes – which also reflects policy discussions. In an age in which high-speed communications has conditioned us and our masters also to high-speed responses, the temptation to reach for the quick kinetic fix must often be hard to resist for those powers with the covert capacity to carry out such operations and the geopolitical muscle (or indifference) to pay the potential political price.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 3, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/the-not-really-so-mysterious-deaths-of-chechens-in-turkey-and-towards-a-future-of-extrajudicial-killings/
Doku Umarov: Russia’s second-best friend in Chechnya?
One of the virtues about having old dogs is that you have slow, gentle walks with ample time to ruminate. While contemplating the entirely welcome news of the death by drone of Anwar al-Awlaki, I began wondering quite why Chechen ’emir’ Doku Umarov was still alive. Although he and his people have a goodly degree of wilderness smarts, I don’t get the sense that they are always that careful with communications intelligence (which after all did for his several-times-removed predecessor Dzhokar Dudaev) and there are enough fissures and rivalries amongst ‘Caucasus Emirate’ leaders that one might have expected some actionable leaks as to his plans or location (as may have happened to Shamil Basaev).
Posted by Mark Galeotti on October 1, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/10/01/doku-umarov-russias-second-best-friend-in-chechnya/
Russian Wetwork in Istanbul?
Three Chechens were gunned down in central Istanbul on 16 September. The general assumption, which has surfaced in Izvestiya, in pro-rebel websites and in the Turkish press, is that this was a Russian intelligence hit.
Posted by Mark Galeotti on September 22, 2011
https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2011/09/22/russian-wetwork-in-istanbul/
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