Chechen parliament attack: a big deal?

This morning (19 October), three insurgents launched a suicide attack on the Chechen parliament building in Grozny, killing two security guards and a parliamentary officer. Following another, larger attack on Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov’s home village, Tsentoroi, on 29 August, this inevitably triggered the usual questions about what this upsurge in violence means.

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One more rebel leader down: Seyfullah’s death further weakens Umarov

One of Chechen ’emir’ Doku Umarov’s closest allies has been the movement’s qadi (supreme judge) and ’emir of Dagestan’ Seifullah of Gubden (Magomed Vagabov) – not to be confused with the Kabardino-Balkarian Emir Seifullah (Anzor Astemirov), who was killed in March. In the current leadership crisis, Seifullah strongly backed Umarov. However, according to both the Russians and the rebel mouthpiece website Kavkazcenter, Seifullah was killed by government forces on 20 August. No need to mourn for the mastermind of the March Moscow metro bombings, but Umarov may well have particular cause to regret his departure. Seifullah was a very useful ally and supporter: he was from the younger generation of field commanders who generally gravitate towards Umarov’s rival, Vadalov; he had a track record of murderous results that the notably-unsuccessful Umarov needs; he has both spiritual/judicial as well as military authority; and he could deliver a degree of support in Dagestan, bolstering the claims of the ’emirate’ to be a pan-Islamic North Caucasus entity. For Umarov, engaged in a political struggle to wrest momentum from his younger rival (and hoping to do so in part through engineering some terrorist ‘spectacular’, precisely Seifullah’s forte), this is the worst news – at the worst possible time.

Incidentally, there is a good profile of the latest fallen Seifullah by Mairbek Vatchagaev on the Jamestown Foundation website, here.

Umarov’s volte-face opens split in the Chechen rebel ‘Caucasus Emirate’

Given the whole resignation-to-rebutal farce around Doku Umarov’s position, it is dangerous to leap to conclusions, especially on the basis of news of uncertain validity, but if the latest from rebel mouthpiece Kavkaz Center is to be believed, deputy-turned-successor-turned-deputy Aslambek Vadalov has resigned his position as deputy emir.

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Umarov steps back from stepping down

So, on 24 July Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov names Aslanbek Vadalov as his deputy and successor. On 1 August, he then announces that he is stepping down, a fact duly reported on rebel mouthpiece websites. And then a couple of days later they are posting his retraction, and his claim that the initial video message from him was “completely fabricated.” What on earth is going on?

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Who is Aslambek Vadalov?

Following the surprise news of the resignation of Doku Umarov as ‘Emir of the Caucasus Emirate’ and commander of the Chechen rebel forces, attention has inevitably focused on his successor, Aslambek Vadalov, and the trajectory he followed to his new position.

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Umarov gives up: hands poisoned chalice to Vadalov

Doku Umarov, Chechen rebel commander and self-proclaimed ‘Emir of the Caucasus Emirate’ has proven to be a disastrously poor leader for the remaining insurrection in Chechnya, but if he had one quality it appeared to be a talent for self-deception which allowed him not just to talk as a victor but seem to believe his own rhetoric, even as if slipped further from his grasp. That is perhaps the most surprising aspect of the news that he has stepped down in favour of Aslambek Vadalov, who on 24 July he had made his successor in case of his death.

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