Update: Imprisoning Navalny: Short-Term Fears Undermine Medium-Term Logic

Just a quick and self-publicising note to the effect that my piece on the ‘logic’ of imprisoning Navalny–and the illogic of then letting him out on bail (“Just when the Kremlin looked to be moving into full-on Evil Empire mode, it wobbled”)– is now on the Russia! magazine website, right here.

There’s also some great discussion of the Navalny case in the latest Power Vertical podcast, available here (and I’ll have to assume the blame for the punny Star Wars title).

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  1. Yes, the regime is going to fall…

    To be rather blunt, this is a bit like a weatherman saying it is going to be warm sometime next summer.

    All “regimes” without exception “fall,” to some extent or another, sooner or later.

    How exactly do you define “fall,” and by what date do you predict it will happen?

    • Mark Galeotti

       /  July 28, 2013

      True, but the focus of that piece wasn’t on the timeframe of VVP’s departure. But for the record, for some time I have been saying that I don’t think that he will stand for re-election, and on balance I think he will go shortly before, with the most likely outcome being that he is ‘encouraged’ to step down in the hope that a managed transition to a new leader will allow the system to be preserved: I talk about this more here.


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