‘When Putin Falls’ – Wikistrat simulation explores Life after Vova
The crowdsourced simulations consultancy Wikistrat ran an internal exercise in March on ‘When Putin Falls’, exploring the potential ways in which Putin may leave office before the end of his potential constitutional term as president and what this may mean for Russia. I was fortunate enough to lead the exercise and it was fascinating to see what over 70 analysts from around the world collaboratively came up with over ten days and work it into a document which does not so much seek to generate a predictive narrative for Russia across the rest of the decade, or even to express any belief that Putin would not serve out his term, but instead explore the range of trajectories the country could follow.
The full report is Wikistrat’s intellectual property, but the Executive Summary is freely shareable and so I am delighted to link it here:
When Putin Falls-Executive Summary
