The crowdsourced simulations consultancy Wikistrat ran an internal exercise in March on ‘When Putin Falls’, exploring the potential ways in which Putin may leave office before the end of his potential constitutional term as president and what this may mean for Russia. I was fortunate enough to lead the exercise and it was fascinating to see what over 70 analysts from around the world collaboratively came up with over ten days and work it into a document which does not so much seek to generate a predictive narrative for Russia across the rest of the decade, or even to express any belief that Putin would not serve out his term, but instead explore the range of trajectories the country could follow.
The full report is Wikistrat’s intellectual property, but the Executive Summary is freely shareable and so I am delighted to link it here:
guyhollandgroen
/ May 30, 2013Thanks. I like it. I tend to lean towards the favourable view points as they are the more likely scenarios in a Russia which desires to be part of a modern world.
Guy Holland 2 Mayfield Road London E8 4BB
00 44 (0)7909828331 guyhollandgroen@aol.com
Ivan Selivanov
/ June 9, 2013Thanks for providing such outstanding report!
I am curious if there is any way to purchase this report separately or should I be Wikistrat subscriber?
Mark Galeotti
/ June 9, 2013Thanks! You’d have to talk to Wikistrat direct to get access to the full report; I honestly have no idea about the terms and prices involved.
kunast
/ June 15, 2013Thanks for the interesting report, Mark. The Strategic Takeaways points are pretty adequate. However, the discussion generally repeats a common Western misperception on the role and significance of Mr. Putin. Things wouldn’t be much different if there was not Putin but any other “Russian child” at the top. Major Russian problems are rooted not within a leader but within feudal-criminal practices of societal living, within its values and common political consciousness.
Mark Galeotti
/ June 15, 2013I wouldn’t necessarily disagree about the systemic nature of the issues facing Russia. However, the terms of the exercise were specifically “When Putin Falls” – and the nature of that fall could prove enough of a systemic shock to have a profound impact on the current order.
kunast
/ June 15, 2013Ok. I agree that schok is possible although not a systemic and with no significant impact. Even Stalin’s death was incapable to change the pro-monarchial fundamentals in “soviet-feudalism / red monarchy” mentality. Who is Putin compare to Stalin… Russian permanent inability to create a self-organizing democratic society will digest Putin’s possible disappearance and bring another putin pretty shortly. Changes within Public might be a key to new alternatives😦