On 5 February, President Medvedev signed into law the long-awaited (in other words, overdue) new military doctrine document. I don’t propose at this point to post much about it, not least as there have already been excellent immediate-response analyses from Dmitry Gorenburg and the anonymous author of the Russian Defense Policy blog. My overwhelming sense is that the 2010 document is fundamentally very close to its 2000 predecessor, albeit a lot more tightly written. Much the same can be said about the doctrine itself. It does not so much change the fundamentals of the previous doctrine as distill them. More to the point, it seems to represent on the one hand a grudging retreat from claims to a truly global status (long overdue) but on the other a much sharper and arguably more aggressive assertion of its regional power status and, indeed, its claims to hegemony in post-Soviet Eurasia. So, NATO is no longer the enemy — but NATO expansion into the ‘Near Abroad’ and even the penetration of its influence there is listed as the greatest military danger (which is different from a threat) to Russia. Likewise, attempts to ‘destabilise states and regions’ near Russia — presumably we’re back to the bugbear of nefarious Westerners engineering pro-democracy movements in Eurasia — are explicitly listed as a danger. Maybe Moscow has come to realise the wisdom of Frederick the Great’s dictum, that if you try to hold everything, you hold nothing. In the future, me may see less global grandstanding (Moscow’s tougher line on Iran’s nuclear policy could prove encouraging) but this is not going to reflect any more conciliatory line so much as a greater concentration of effort on both securing Eurasian hegemony and ejecting foreign influence from the region, something unlikely to be a great comfort to its neighbours.
Russia’s new military doctrine: not so much revised as concentrated
Posted by Mark Galeotti on February 11, 2010
This blog's author, Dr Mark Galeotti has been researching Russian history and security issues since the late 1980s.
Educated at Cambridge University and the LSE, he is now a senior researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague and coordinates its Centre for European Security. He is also the director of the consultancy firm Mayak Intelligence. Previously he has been Professor of Global Affairs at New York University, head of the History department at Keele University in the UK, an adviser at the British Foreign Office and a visiting professor at MGIMO (Moscow), Charles University (Prague) and Rutgers (Newark), as well as a visiting fellow with the ECFR.
His books include the edited collections 'The Politics of Security in Modern Russia' (Ashgate), 'Russian & Soviet Organized Crime' (Ashgate) and 'Spetsnaz: Russia's Special Forces' (Osprey) and he is a regular contributor to Jane's Intelligence Review, Oxford Analytica and many other outlets. He is a contributing editor to Business New Europe.
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