Today’s Power Vertical podcast was a four-hander between Brian Whitmore, Kirill Kobrin, Sean Guillory and me on Russia a year after Bolotnaya. I thought it worked especially well, but one point on which I touched that I feel minded to write on at slightly greater length is the extent to which the political struggle taking place within Russia is in no way a conventional organizational one; there is no rival to Putin and the United Russia bloc within the regular electoral context. Instead, it is an asymmetric struggle by a range of actors to define, to brand themselves and their rivals and in the process Russia itself. This kind of memetic (as in relating to memes, ideas that spread from person to person) is one in which creativity and passion can be — almost — as effective as the size of a propaganda machine. And, of course, it happens to be an area in which the liberal middle class opposition have demonstrated considerable skill, especially the arch mememeister Alexei Navalny.

A particularly good index of this has been a recent Levada opinion survey, also somewhat covered in the Russian press, about attitudes to United Russia, Putin and the elite in particular. I reproduce them below, although in some cases I have eliminated some columns, especially of earlier samples, in the interests of space. This must be pretty uncomfortable reading in the Kremlin.

WITH WHICH THESE STATEMENTS ABOUT THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POWER NOW DO YOU AGREE?

TO WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS ON CORRUPTION IN RUSSIA DO YOU AGREE?

WHAT, IN YOUR OPINION, IS MORE IMPORTANT TO THE PEOPLE WHO NOW HOLD POWER IN RUSSIA?

DO YOU THINK THAT PUTIN IS NOW MORE INTERESTED IN THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY OF HIS OWN INTERESTS?

DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE INCOME DECLARATIONS OF SENIOR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, MEMBERS OF THE FEDERATION COUNCIL AND STATE DUMA DEPUTIES REPRESENT ALL THEIR AVAILABLE INCOME AND PROPERTY TAXES OR ONLY PART OF THEM?

WHY DO YOU THINK THE RICHEST STATE DUMA DEPUTIES BELONG TO THE “UNITED RUSSIA” BLOC?

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE VIEW THAT “UNITED RUSSIA” IS THE PARTY OF CROOKS AND THIEVES?

Take, for example, the last, specific point about UR being the “Party of Crooks and Thieves”–something which was, after all, Navalny’s inspired “PZhiV” memetic salvo. Over half, 51%, of respondents definitely or generally agree. Remember, 51% are not also devoted Navalny groupies (most have not heard of him, and of those who have, most express dislike or mistrust of him), but nonetheless his meme has spread well beyond his own circle, and it is also supported by those separate indices that see United Russia as the rich man’s (or woman’s) home and the elite habitually understating their true incomes.

The steady rise of the PZiV meme

The sad and worrying thing about the present struggle for the hearts and minds of Russia, though, is that it is pretty much entirely negative. Navalny presenting the elite as self-serving and corrupt; the Kremlin trying to do the same to him. How long will it be before anyone is able to start presenting some positive visions for Russia’s future?

Yes, Navalny needs YOU!

It’s been too busy a time for me of late to post, but nonetheless something that has struck me has been the relatively low-key response to Navalny’s imminent trial on what seem thoroughly spurious embezzlement charges. Of course, it’s been reported, especially since his declaration that he wanted to stand for president. However, the contrast with the massive and at times thoroughly hysterical and hyperbolic coverage of the Pussy Riot case, even before their trial, has been evident. I find this slightly surprising and distinctly alarming and a cause for what I might call some “navalny-gazing.”

No wonder, I suppose, that the subtitle on Navalny’s blog is “The final battle between good and neutrality.”

After all, while the Pussy Riot defendants were undoubtedly the victims of a kangaroo court (the very notion that they could be found guilty under the technical terms of hooliganism rather than some lesser charge was ridiculous) and comported themselves with impressive dignity in court, nonetheless they were hardly important in and of themselves. The importance, I would suggest, lay in what the trial said about the wider processes at work: the lawfare of the courts in their use against expressions of opposition thought and sentiment, the heavy-handedness of Putin’s state, the role of a conservative and assertive Russian Orthodox Church. Let’s be honest, had the authorities simply patronized them as publicity-seeking little women, slapped them with a fine, and used this as an opportunity to present the opposition as being full of blasphemers and exhibitionists, it would have been a two-day wonder.

Whether or not Navalny is the potential savior of the nation or a nationalist opportunist who has spotted a potential chance to rise is irrelevant (and for the record, while I don’t believe him to be perfect, I certainly believe him closer to the former than the latter). He is undoubtedly at present the driving force behind the opposition, however inchoate and drifting it currently may be. He has brought the issue of the corruption elite into the center of Russian politics, and has done more than anyone else to connect that with the United Russia bloc, that bastion of the cynical, the careerist and the corrupt. At present, there is no one else who can assume his mantle, no one else who has a chance–no more than a chance–of being able to turn the middle-class metropolitan opposition into a credible political force.

Which is, of course, why the Kremlin wants him out of the way, whether in prison or, much more likely, smeared and given a suspended sentence which will preclude him from standing for political office. It also explains why attack-dog Bastrykin–a man also with a clear personal animosity against Navalny–has been given such a long leash. They fear him in a way that they don’t fear socialite-seditionist Kseniya Sobchak or leftist firebrand Sergei Udaltsov.

Less comprehensible is quite why the Russian opposition is not more active and why Western democrats who want to see Russia move away from authoritarianism are nowhere near as excited as they were during the Pussy Riot case. Sure, maybe things will be different once the court case starts, but at present there seems little real enthusiasm for Navalny’s cry for protests on the streets in Russia, and far less media attention, let alone op. ed. outrage in the West.

Is it that everyone is getting tired of protest that seems to get nowhere, and Kirov is a way away rather than just a couple of streets away in Moscow? (If so, welcome to the real world: regime change is a hard slog, not a New Year’s resolution.)

Is it that people dislike or mistrust Navalny? (Sure, there are some questions to be asked, from his nationalist politics to what he’s doing on the Aeroflot board, but to be honest it’s hard to see any such antagonism towards him from any but elements of the elite.)

When it comes to the Western media and Russia-watchers, can it really be as banal as that one guy who blogs about corruption is a less exciting topic to discuss that balaclava-ed punkettes? That “People got interested in Pussy Riot on a global scale because it included so many themes – feminism, gay rights, religion” but that the bedrock issues of power and freedom aren’t as widely appealing? (Sadly, there is probably more than a little truth here.)

Whatever the reason, I cannot help but feel there is a potential opportunity here that risks being squandered. When Brian Whitmore and I were discussing the case in a Power Vertical podcast (you don’t subscribe to it? You should!) we agreed that the trial could represent a turning point for the opposition, a chance to get its act together after over a year of drift, a chance to cohere around a high-profile case, a chance to use it as a platform to seek to reach out to the disgruntled elements in the wider population (and we know they are there) and seek to build a common cause. Of course, that means they have to do it. And outsiders who want to encourage them–though ultimately this must be a domestic phenomenon, there certainly is no scope for the kind of “revolution plotted from abroad” beloved of pro-Kremlin conspiracy theorists–at the very least need to keep up the pressure and the attention, because that will help make this case significant, signal to the authorities that they cannot just pick off whomever they want with impunity.

This is unlikely to be the final battle, but it is an extremely important one. Given that “neutrality” is often a synonym in such cases for apathy or despair, perhaps this is time for action…