On one level, today’s day of protests in Russia and especially Moscow followed a trajectory which by now is all terribly predictable. The speeches (now with added Gudkov). The rival estimates of turnout (14,000 in Moscow according to the police, maybe 100,000 by some oppositionists’ counts, but probably a maximum of a little under 25,000). The snide putdowns from the Kremlin spin-apparat (apparently Putin was too busy with important stuff like meeting Belarusian autocrat Lukashenka to follow the protests). Radical leftist Sergei Udaltsov’s arrest by the OMON (I suspect he’d be offended if he didn’t manage to get himself detained at such events). It would be easy to be blasé (I notice that it didn’t make the world news front pages of either BBC or NPR), or even to make a snap judgement that the protest movement was fizzling out.
However, my own snap judgement is that things have changed, and in some ways today’s March may signal some deeper developments:





